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Today's manufacturer IEN / FEB '16 43 www.ien.com tion statistics and the Census Bureau's Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders data series. "Every year, federal statistical agencies incorporate all new available economic information and issue revised data. The annual revisions are typically relatively minor; every fi ve years, however, government statisticians use the results of a census of business to establish a new benchmark that can lead to large revisions extending back over the previous half-decade," Meckstroth explained. "The bottom line is that manufacturing growth since 2010 was 4.5 percent slower than last reported, averaging about 0.9 percent less growth each year. The largest downward revisions were in 2012 and 2013. Manufacturing production was previously set at 3.4 percent growth in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013, but was revised down to 1.5 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively." The point of all this, Meckstroth argues, is that we thought the manufacturing sector had recovered from the recession last year when, in fact, that likely wasn't the case. "Man- ufacturing industrial production has to grow another 3.4 percent in order to reach the pre-recession production level achieved in December 2007—that's at least another year of manufacturing industrial production growth," he said in the report. The Good News But even MAPI counters its points on the dubious re- covery with a positive forecast: the organization foretells of a 3.4 percent rate of growth in 2016, and a 3.1 percent growth rate in 2017. That said, this industry growth rate is enhanced signifi cantly by the high tech manufacturing sec- tor, which includes discrete industries such as computer and electronic products. MAPI estimates high tech will grow at a whopping 6.1 percent this year, followed by a growth of 5.9 percent in 2017. Other bright points include housing industry products. As single family housing starts continue to ramp up on the strength of an encouraging residential real estate market, so is the housing supply chain (wood products, nonmetal- lic mineral products, HVAC, household appliances, furni- ture, and construction machinery). Additionally, says MAPI, motor vehicles and parts production growth is surprisingly strong and low gas prices encourage the purchase of large, expensive vehicles — favoring the domestic industry. Speaking of low gas prices, for those manufacturers out- side of the energy sector, continued low oil & gas prices mean lower operating and shipping costs, as well as pos- sible improvements in routing and delivery. According to strategy + business magazine, trucking company opera- tors stand to gain higher margins while passing some of the savings on to their customers. For example, National Delivery Systems levies a fuel surcharge on customers that is updated weekly to refl ect changes in the national average fuel index. Additionally, "Lower fuel costs also allow trucking companies to streamline operations around demand, rather than fuel savings. In particular, these companies can adjust their networks and routes to better serve their customers on the basis of speed and convenience." The Global Picture From a global perspective, the U.S. is not alone in some of the challenges it faces. In fact, if any country's industrial sector were at risk, many would bet on China – particularly due to the fact that manufacturing activity in China has now contracted in 12 of the past 13 months. According to Reu- ters, "The world's second-largest economy faces persistent risks this year as leaders have pledged to push so-called 'supply-side reform' to reduce excess factory capacity and high debt levels." Additionally, "Weak demand from at home and abroad has weighed on China's factories, exacerbat- ing the problem of excess capacity and forcing them to cut prices of their goods, eating into their profi ts and adding to defl ationary pressures in the economy." Reuters went on to speculate about China's future, suggesting that some Chi- na-watchers "believe real growth levels are already much weaker than offi cial data suggest." In Europe, however, the latest statistics are positive and manufacturing is a sector Business Insider calls "resurgent." Led by the likes of Italy and Greece, and supported by strength from Germany, France, and Spain, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI beat forecasts in its December report, coming in at 53.2 against estimates of 53.1. The laggard was the UK, who came in with a PMI of 51.9, which is still a growth number and, compared to the U.S. PMI of 48.2, should be something to smile about coming into the new year. Despite these regional ups and downs, expert suggest that the overall global industrial economy should err on the positive side, albeit measured. According to Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist for National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), "Even as the global economy re- mains quite challenged, we continue to see manufacturing activity expand ever so slightly internationally overall." Do Or Die Other interesting notes from the industry suggest 2016 will continue to be a year of pressures, and one of change. According to Frost & Sullivan's Manufacturing Leadership Committee, this year will be something of a tipping point for SMEs, as they must elect to sink or swim in today's global digital age. "Concerned that they could fall rapidly behind global competitors with greater fi nancial and other resourc- es, small- and medium-size manufacturing companies will move more aggressively to develop strategies to embrace Manufacturing 4.0 concepts and technologies," said David Brousell, Global Vice President, General Manager and Edi- torial Director of the Manufacturing Leadership Council, in a recent article. "For many, this will include modernizing plant fl oor equipment and moving to state-of-the-art operation- al systems, including cloud-based ERP systems, to better manage information." Forbes, citing a study produced by Deloitte, suggests that predictive analytics will be a must for manufacturers in 2016: "Predictive data analytics is the most important ad- vanced manufacturing technology needed for driving future competitiveness, according to U.S. manufacturing execu- tives." The report also says that China is focusing on predic- tive analytics as a way to close the gap between itself and the U.S., and to gain a competitive advantage – meaning, manufacturers who don't take a hard look at their data may fi nd their cost and customer advantages eroding. In its January article "8 Hot 3D Printing Trends To Watch In 2016", Forbes suggests that, while the implications for the consumer market have been a bit overhyped, the industrial market for 3D printing "looks poised to begin its long growth run, with far reaching implications." Forbes suggests that one of the major bene- fi ts that's on the horizon will be the cost savings associated with reducing expensive physical in- ventories. "Shifting physical inventory to virtual inventory, which allows you to generate parts on-demand when and where you need them, is shaping up to be a major part of the solution. Look for cloud-based 'virtual inventory' to be 3D printing's fi rst killer app for the supply chain," says Forbes. 3D Printing on the Brink of Signifi cance for Industry