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38 IEN / DECEMBER '16 www.ien.com editor's note We've Elected a New President: What Happens Next? T he people of America have spent months pick- ing fi ghts with one an- other, as the most contentious election in history has taken po- litical discourse to new levels. Now, after all the sharp words and tense family dinners, the dust has settled and we can all at least agree on one thing – good or bad, things are about to change. Or, we think so anyway. Recently, the AP outlined several key areas of our econ- omy and the impact that might come from policy shifts execut- ed by President-elect Donald Trump. Whether manufacturing emerges as a winner or a loser is yet to be seen, but here are the areas to watch: • Interest Rates: The Fed has been considered all but sure to raise rates at its next meeting in mid-Decem- ber, refl ecting a strengthened U.S. economy, says the AP. After Trump's victory, investors still peg the likeli- hood of a December rate hike at 81 percent, accord- ing to the CME Group. • Trade Deals: Trump spent the majority of his campaign deriding trade deals such as NAFTA and TPP, which he blames for manufacturing job losses — a trend he would allegedly stop by renegotiating these deals and penalizing U.S. companies that move manufacturing operations offshore. Trump says he'd close an existing trade gap by raising tariffs if necessary to restore factory jobs. Yet, says the AP,"foreign governments could view the threat of higher tariffs as the start of a trade war. And even if U.S. manufacturing did expand, automation means factories need fewer workers." • Infrastructure: Trump would use tax credits to in- centivize infrastructure development, and his advisers have asserted that $140 billion in tax credits could generate $1 trillion more in infrastructure investments over 10 years. Though the approach might speed construction, tax credits would likely favor prof- it-generating projects, says the AP. For example, "It's uncertain whether tax credits would lead to upgraded decaying sewer systems in impoverished cities with a shrinking tax base." • Taxes: Cut, cut, cut. Trump's election could mean a big tax reduction for the richest 1 percent, and a much smaller tax cut for many others. The Trump campaign argues that the cuts will spur economic growth and eventually pay for themselves, but budget scorers have been far more skeptical, says Money magazine, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget putting the Trump plan's price tag as high as $6 trillion over 10 years. • Heath Care: Insurers, pharmaceutical fi rms and hos- pitals would stand to lose if a repeal of Obama's health care law, as Trump has vowed, increases the number of uninsured Americans. In fact, the AP calls Trump a "wild card" for pharma in general: At one point, he supported authorizing Medicare to negotiate prescrip- tion drug prices. He also favors letting consumers buy lower-cost medications from overseas. • Energy: Trump has supported what he calls "safe" hydraulic fracturing, which has helped U.S. oil and gas production boom, says the AP, and he supports more leasing on federal lands and the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada. Trump also wants to reverse Obama environmental policy, including an end to Obama's Clean Power Plan, which would have forced states to limit carbon emissions and likely hastened the decline of U.S. coal production. • Automotive: An industry rife with regulatory require- ments may face some relief if Trump determines to dismantle requirements relating to safety or automo- tive fuel economy. But there could be backlash as well. Says the AP, "Ford was Trump's punching bag for having moved production to Mexico. But most major automakers and parts suppliers have built factories there because of lower labor costs. Trump railed about corporations moving jobs across the border to exploit what he called a lopsided North American Free Trade Agreement. He vowed to scrap the pact, impose tariffs on Mexican imports and punish U.S. companies including Ford." All that said, if there's one thing we learned from this elec- tion cycle, it's that predictions have a strong propensity for coming out wrong. Without a crystal ball, there's no telling which of these will be top on Trump's agenda, if any will slip through the cracks, or if some are simply too extreme or short-sighted to be attainable. As with any fi rst-year term, proceed with caution – but not so much that your business fi nds itself in a crippling holding pattern. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon emailed his employees the day after the election with the following charge: "Leaders from across the public, private and nonprofi t sectors need to collaborate to fi nd meaningful solutions that create eco- nomic growth and greater opportunity for all." Wise words, no matter where you land on the political spectrum, of how we each must participate in our own future success. -Anna Wells Anna Wells David Mantey Jeff Reinke Find your local dealer: hannay.com or 877-467-3357 When it comes to your equipment, you demand quality and value – and Hannay Reels delivers every time. More than 3,800 reel models An exclusive heavy-duty design and construction Reels built to order and shipped fast THE REEL THAT WORKS AS HARD AS YOU Made in U.S.A.